Oh yeah, Marino's offense averaged 32.1 points per game, too. Buffalo has a top 10 pass defense led by one of the game's best cornerbacks in Tre'Davious White and Pro Bowl snub Jordan Poyer, but the run defense has to improve to beat a team like Kansas City. Los Angeles is going to score points this year. Seattle Seahawks +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total), Will we see the first-half Seahawks (6-1, 34 points per game! IMPORTANT NOTE: I used my own mathematical point system involving team records, offensive production, and defensive production to determine the order. Bettis got his ring before retirement andthe Steelersgreatly overachieved in the process. Philly was actually favored before the game, but Oakland made the betting line look silly early on, getting out to a 21-3 lead. 3. The Chiefs win And yet it was Desmond Howard who took home the MVP award thanks to his game-clinching kickoff return. He had one season without Peyton and went 2-14 leading to his firing and the start of the Luck era. Is this a bad thing?No, but it does not exactly make for one of the most dominant championship teams of all time. 20 David Tyree: 2008 Giants Known for his improbable catch in the Super Bowl and how it essentially won the Giants the game, it also hasn't been lost that Tyree was just a mediocre player at best, at any point during his career. Kind of pains me to say it, but it was the 2011 Giants. They shipped 400 points that year in the regular season and normally that leads to a losing Joe Montanas first Super Bowl win was nearly squandered after the 49ers let the Bengals nearly erase a 20-point deficit. This year, theres a chance theyre 4-0 heading into a week five game against the Cowboys. Which one is the most likely to remove itself from this dubious list? This Super Bowl had it all: An underdog story (Nick Foles), a memorable play (Philly Special), a controversial coaching decision (Belichick benching Malcolm Butler), a ton of points (a record 74 points combined!) This was the first of the Cowboys three Super Bowl wins in the 90s. Tough division, and they open with three of four on the road. Unfortunately, they lost both starting tackles for the Super Bowl and could not stop the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beast-mode pass rush. The presence of Lawrence gives Jacksonville hope for the first time in years. Jaguars won't spend big, but here are five players they could target in free agency, The most memorable pre-NFL draft workouts ever: Coaches, scouts, execs make their picks, 2023 NFL franchise tag tracker: Raiders tag Josh Jacobs, the NFL's rushing leader. The best chance they had and they were wide right. Which is a shame, because this 11-4-1 team had a defense that was really impressive throughout the year. The NFC, with two of the top six teams in FPI rating, is a little less threatening than the AFC. Arizona Cardinals +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total), Yes, they got older with J.J. Watt and A.J. Joe Namath may have guaranteed a Super Bowl III win over the Baltimore Colts, but he didn't say anything about being the best team of all time. Unfortunately for them, that stopped in the playoffs and in the Super Bowl. New York didnt want Buffalos explosive offense on the field, so it grinded out the clock on the ground and ended up winning the time of possession battle by about 20 minutes. Same goes for this one. Yes, the Chiefs -- not the Super Bowl-champion Buccaneers -- are projected to be the best team and also have the best chances to hoist the Lombardi trophy next February. To show you how wildly that fluctuates, in those categories the year before, Miami ranked 29th, 24th, and 27th.. A.J. 2004-2023 CBS Interactive. Im all aboard the Trevor Lawrence bandwagon., 8. FPI is able to reconcile that issue to determine a more accurate SOS. Cam Newton had an MVP season to remember and ran an offense that produced 31.3 points per game. Reeling off 11 straight road wins was impressive, and so was beating the top two seeded teams in the NFC en route to the title game (Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys). It truly is a remarkable tale, but the Patriots were nothing special on the way there. The universe wont let the Vikings back in the Super Bowl because all of the ones they made in the 70s ended up being unwatchable. The Colts have the third worst odds at +15000, while the Texans have the worst overall odds at +30000. This isn't entirely a reflection on them, though FPI is never particularly bullish on rookie quarterbacks. You can follow him on Twitter at @jasonrmcintyre. Plenty of star power like Todd Gurley, Brandin Cooks, Aaron Donald, and Ndamukong Suh. As of now, FPI is working under the assumption that two rookies -- the Jaguars' Lawrence and the Jets' Wilson -- are their respective teams' current starters. You have a few precious hours left to scout rosters, analyze schedules, weigh injuries and place your futures bets on who is going to win Super Bowl 56. (Hey, at least it worked out for them with Trevor Lawrence being available.). The Philadelphia Eagles were the most recent team to leave the "never won a Super Bowl" club, but the league only has three first-time Super Bowl winners since the start of the 2009 season. An 11-win season leaning on the talent of John Elway and the defense's ability to hold teams to under three touchdowns. This is how good the NFC West is: There's a 37% chance that three of the four teams reach the playoffs, and there's even a 3% chance that all four get in. Including the next one. He finished fourth in the league in completion percentage (69.2), fifth in passing yards, fifth in passing touchdowns, and fourth in passer rating -- while also rushing for 421 yards and eight touchdowns. With that criteria in mind, weve ranked every Super Bowl ever played from worst to first. and quarterback rating (112.4). Reporting on what you care about. The 49ers' projection is based on the assumption that Jimmy Garoppolo is the starting quarterback. San Francisco finished the regular season at just 10-6, and the leading receiver was none other than Roger Craig. Los Angeles Chargers +3300 (bet $10 to win $340 total), The world loves the Chargers after Justin Herberts incredible rookie year (record-setting 31 TDs). Odell Beckham makes a highly anticipated return to a passing game that includes Jarvis Landry and an emerging Rashard Higgins and Donovan Peoples-Jones. Allen set the Bills' franchise record for passing yards in a season (4,544) and passing touchdowns (37), finishing with a 107.2 passer rating. The most interesting thing about this Super Bowl remains Hank Strams micd up footage. What should have been a great quarterback matchup Marino vs. Montana turned into a blowout as the Dolphins gunslinger couldnt keep up with the 49ers surgeon. Mahomes becomes the first quarterback to win the regular-season NFL most-valuable-player award and the Super Bowl in the same season in 23 years. One team (Patriots) in the last 25 years has been to three straight.. Three different QBs started six games. The 2005 Steelers are a prime example. The Doomsday Defense vs. the Orange Crush ended up being a forgettable, one-sided affair. And in these two cases, both quarterbacks will have below-average pass protection in front of them, and both will be trying to compensate for their teams' defenses, which both rank in FPI's bottom six. With a 131 record, this Oakland Raiders team would be higher, but not as good as some of the other late '60s losing teams. Detroit has some work to do on the defensive side of the ball, a monumental task for new defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn (gave up a league-worst 112.4 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks in 2020). That was by design. Boomer Esiason and the Bengals were the most productive offense in 1988. Maybe the most controversial one on the list. New York had to scrap its way to the Super Bowl. Craving even more NFL coverage focusing on previews, recaps, news and analysis? But hey, they did something right, they were in the Super Bowl. BUT this 14-2 Atlanta Falcons team was no slouch. Division favorites, win totals and the NFL's best (and worst) teams: Takeaways from the 2021 projections, The future of the NFL combine: Is there really a chance it could end forever? Sixth-round draft pickTom Brady took over for the injured Drew Bledsoe at quarterback and led the Patriots all the way to the Super Bowl title. OK, so this game was never in doubt, this was Bill Walshs 49ers dynasty at its apex. The Kansas City Chiefs, winners of Super Bowl 57, are the favorites at +600. How much this defense will improve under first-year head coach Brandon Staley will be an indicator whether the Chargers are playoff-caliber. Ron Jaworski, Harold Carmichael, and Wilbert Montgomery all had a part in this offense. and Im sorry, but Dan Campbell is not winning the Super Bowl this year., 30. 11 in the league, per FPI) isn't a problem with that kind of strength on the other side of the ball. Phil Simms set the record for completion percentage after finishing 22-of-25 in an MVP effort. There are no arguments to be made: This is the greatest Super Bowl of all-time. In the Super Bowl, Pittsburgh managed just 16 points and won a defensive slugfest 16-6. The Jaguars are going to be better than the 1-15 team that played last year, and could actually contend for eight or nine wins if the defense becomes a top 20 unit (ranked 31st in points and yards allowed in 2020). In the Super Bowl, Pittsburgh managed just 16 points and won a defensive slugfest 16-6. "Broadway Joe" completed just 49.2 percent of his passes during the season and threw two more interceptions (17) than he did touchdowns (15). 1 seed in the AFC (32%) and reach the Super Bowl (30%). Minnesota Vikings +4500 (bet $10 to win $460 total), I want to like Minnesota as a buy-low team after rebuilding its defense.. The Panthers and Patriots gave us the most exciting fourth quarter in Super Bowl history, combining for five scores, including an 85-yard pass by Jake Delhomme, which remains a Super Bowl record, and Adam Vinatieris game-winning kick as time expired. If Murray can stay healthy, the sky's the limit for this team. 51. Going 7-2 in one-score games last year will regress. 18. What puts Baltimore on this list is the lack of offensive prowess. There were great pieces, but the team was not performing at its peak. Thats NFL history. 12. The first five weeks of Indianapolis' schedule are rough, as the Colts host the Seahawks and Rams before hitting the road to face the Titans, Dolphins and Ravens. Yes, they have the best QB, a fleet of skill players and a fantastic coach, but history is not on their side. CBS Sports is a registered trademark of CBS Broadcasting Inc. Commissioner.com is a registered trademark of CBS Interactive Inc. site: media | arena: nfl | pageType: stories | Unfortunately, they had to go head-to-head with arguably the greatest defense of all-time in the '85 Bears. Both teams have two of the most talented rosters in the league and look to make an even deeper playoff run -- finally attempting to end title droughts that have lasted more than a half-century. Don't sleep on the rest of the league, of course. Two years ago, the 49ers were 10 minutes away from winning the Super Bowl, and they return eight defensive starters from that team. Love the defense, which is good enough to vault Washington to the playoffs again. As the tweet said, only 28 players have achieved that in the last decade-plus. Pittsburgh was just 7-5 through 12 games. Super Bowl V between the Baltimore Colts and Dallas Cowboys is often considered the worst Super Bowl ever played simply because of the terrible play from both teams. New England Patriots +3300 (bet $10 to win $340 total), If Bill Belichick can figure out his QB, the Patriots are going to be extremely dangerous. And we dont even know who their QB is (probably Teddy Bridgewater over Drew Lock).. This one was actually pretty entertaining for the first 30 minutes. Obviously a dramatic ending helps, but that doesnt alway mean a great game. But itll face Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, Matt Ryan, Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers before Halloween. Buffalo is in position to make another deep playoff run this season. FPI believes there is an 8% chance that the Chiefs face the Bucs again, more than any other potential matchup. Therefore, designating Garoppolo as the starter seemed the safer choice. Will this be the first time for everything?. All Rights Reserved. 1 pick in the 2022 NFL draft, with a 15% chance, followed by the Jets (10%), Jaguars (8%) and Eagles (7%). The run offense needs to be stronger with Devin Singletary and Zack Moss as the offensive line has to create better holes up front to take the pressure off Allen. Tom Brady also led a top offense in his MVP season, finishing with a 133 regular-season record. Instead, Baltimore is here due to how poorly it played in its Super Bowl win. Top draft picks Gregory Rousseau and Carlos Basham Jr. should help, but did Buffalo do enough to shore up the biggest hole on its roster? An 115 team that didn't exceed in anything, but had John Elway. He saved the team from the clutches of defeat and led a game-winning fourth-quarter drive. More NFL coverage . In one of our 20,000 sims, the Eagles took the crown at 5-11-1. The Cardinals added more playmakers to surround Murray this offseason with A.J. 113 career TDs compared to 129 interceptions says that he doesn't deserve that victory. Cleveland Browns +1700 (bet $10 to win $180 total), Are the Browns a better team than the Cowboys? They're returning the 2020 MVP and had the league's most efficient offense last year -- yes, even better than Kansas City's. Use of this website (including any and all parts and components) constitutes your acceptance of these, place your futures bets on who is going to win, Every NFL team's 2021 win totals, ranked from worst to best bet. If we made Lance the starter or partial starter, it would hurt the 49ers' projection because the model assumes Lance is a little worse than Garoppolo, as of now. First place on this list scored 140 points in my grading system. The defense wasn't that much better either, finishing 27th in points allowed, 30th in yards allowed, and recorded the fewest turnovers in the league. For the 2021 version of FPI, we made some under-the-hood improvements, including an updated expected points added model and a better predictive quarterback rating system. To handle the uncertainty in the timing of Wentz's return, FPI gives the QB a very small chance to play in Week 1 and gradually increases the chance of his return until Week 8 -- spanning the range of the recovery timeline laid out last week by coach Frank Reich. Keep in mind, the Larry Fitzgerald touchdown catch (pictured above) was to go ahead with 2:37 left in the game. Had Rodgers simply decided to retire rather than suit up, Green Bay's chances to make the playoffs would have dropped from 70% to 24%, and their Super Bowl chances would have dropped from 6% to 0.2%. Terry Bradshaw and Franco Harris took over the game from there. Miami Dolphins +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total), Miami led the NFL in two categories that they are unlikely to duplicate: takeaways (29) and 3rd down defense (31%); they were also seventh in red zone defense. The Los Angeles 29 and 30. The 2000 Baltimore Ravens featured one of the most stifling defenses ever assembled, allowing only 970 rushing yards all season and five rushing touchdowns. Their strategy to run it back with nearly the same squad looks (on paper) like it could pay off; the Bucs have an 85% chance to reach the playoffs and a 15% shot to repeat as champions, according to FPI. Sure, but it did not make for an entertaining game up until the end. Throw in Trent Dilfer leading the other offense and a game that was never competitive, and this is easily the worst Super Bowl of all-time. 5h. The Bills are good enough to get to the Super Bowl this year -- and win it. Gruden did bring the Raiders back from almost a decade of ineptness and he did win a Super Bowl against the Raiders, but the rest of his career he was pretty much a .500 coach. Along with quarterback Earl Morrall, the Colts defense was the best in the league, only giving up 10.3 points per game. People think of Kerry Collins when they think of this 124 Giants squad, but this defense was the real story. WebWhat was the worst NFL offensive team to win a Super Bowl? It's what helps people grow. The game was won with Ben Roethlisbergers perfect pass to Santonio Holmes, who somehow got two feet down in the back of the end zone. Despite the strength of the division, the 49ers play one of the easiest strength of schedules in the league (SOS rank: 29th). John Elway finally won his ring in a well-played game that featured one of the best performances by a running back in Super Bowl history. Stefon Diggs is one of the game's best wide receivers and Gabriel Davis is one of the underrated young wideouts in the league. The first of the Steelers-Cowboys Super Bowls gave us those beautiful NFL Films shots of Lynn Swanns acrobatic catch. The teams combined for 11 turnovers. The 1970s Steelers gave us one last entertaining Super Bowl before its dynasty ended. What makes a great Super Bowl? CB | Safety | OT | Interior OL The Vikings have made the playoffs every odd-year season since coach Mike Zimmer took over in 2014, which bodes well for them in 2021. Throw in Trent Dilfer leading the other offense and a game that was never competitive, and this is easily the worst Super Bowl of all-time. Chark will help Lawrence out immensely, especially with James Robinson, Carlos Hyde, and Travis Etienne capable of creating a balanced rushing attack.