Egypt Forced to Negotiate on Nile Dam. On Feb. 26, Ethiopia temporarily suspended its . In that light, Egypt should minimize trips to Washington, D.C., New York, and Brussels, and instead use its diplomatic resources to improve its relations with the other riparian states. At the same. It will take between eight and ten years to fill the new dam. It states in Principle III that the parties shall take all appropriate measures to prevent the causing of significant harm. In the modern era, the US used water to blackmail Egypt. Water scarcity is a growing problem. European countries including Italy, Belgium and especially the UK controlled the Nile as part of colonisation and the broader Scramble for Africa. These colonising states used the tactic of concluding treaties (often at gunpoint) to secure their interests and, in this case, essentially prohibit upstream states from using their own waters. Moreover, after the completion of the GERD, Egypt could run short of water if the operation of the GERD was not carefully coordinated with that of the AHD. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is a 6000 MW hydropower project on the Blue Nile, which the Ethiopian government plans to build to fulfill the country's energy needs. Even without taking the dam into account, the largely desert country is short of water. In terms of the old or anachronistic law, two of the Nile Water Treaties do not bind Ethiopia meanwhile the third does not actually preclude the construction of a dam. Cairo Controversy prevailed in the Egyptian public opinion, after Deltares, a Dutch advisory institute, announced on Sept. 15 its withdrawal from a study to assess the risks that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which is under construction on the Blue Nile, can cause to Egypt and Sudan. Ethiopias interests in developing its water resources are driven by its growing population and high demand for socio-economic development (Gebreluel, 2014). It was in the hope of protecting Lake Turkana against such threats that it was listed as a World Heritage Site. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and hydroelectric project is located 700 km northeast of the capital city Addis Abeba, in the Benishangul--Gumaz region of Ethiopia, along the Blue Nile River. EDUARDO SOTERAS/AFP via Getty Images. The crucial leverage regarding Egypts water security lies with the Blue Nile countries Ethiopia and Sudan, as the Blue Nile is the main contributor to the Nile Rivers flow downstream. The results indicated that the negative impacts on Egyptian water resources are dominant. For example, Ethiopians and Egyptians are more likely to understand and appreciate the challenges that they face, particularly in the areas of water security, climate change, food production, and poverty alleviation, if they regularly interact with each other and engage in more bottom-up, participatory and inclusive approaches to the resolution of their conflicts. However, it also entails potential negative effects on Egypt, if not carefully managed (see alsoSecurity implications of growing water scarcity in Egypt). An optimistic trend among todays African commentators focuses primarily on economic growth rates and pays little attention to human tolls, questions of transparency and accountability, and the sustainability of growth. For a decade, Egypt and Ethiopia have been at a diplomatic stalemate over the Nile's management. when did construction of the dam begin? Water scarcity is a growing problem. Ethiopia and Sudan are currently developing and implementing water infrastructure developments unilaterally - as Egypt has done in the past and continues to do. Egypts original goal was to have the project purely and simply cancelled. Following the fall of Mengistu Haile-Mariams regime in Ethiopia in 1991, Ethiopia experienced a remarkable rise in the construction of dams and hydroelectric power stations. Ethiopia should get its fair share of water that originates in Ethiopia. Attempts to resolve the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam dispute over the past decade have reached a deadlock. Ethiopian Yearbook of International Law 2017. It and several other large dams in Ethiopia could turn the country into Africa's hydropower hub. Thus, it is only through cooperation that Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan, and the other riparians can peacefully resolve conflicts over the Nile and achieve the type of water use that will contribute significantly to regional economic and human development. Egypt, fearing major disruptions to its access to the Niles waters, originally intended to prevent even the start of the GERDs construction. The change of government in Egypt led to a more conciliatory approach (Von Lossow & Roll, 2015). Ethiopian general threatens military force to defend Nile dam as negotiations with Egypt falter. Swain, A. Second, as also noted above, the Dam is to be used for electricity generation, not irrigation. As a consequence, Ethiopia has not been able to make significant use of the rivers waters. Despite the controversy and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam's effect on Egypt and Sudan, it appears that the Ethiopian government will continue to move forward with filling the dam. Von Lossow, T. & Roll, S. (2015). It can help the riparian states outline principles, rights, and obligations for cooperative management of the resources of the Nile. The colonial powers have departed and so to continue to enforce treaties agreed based around their interests would be irrational. This exception was implemented to mitigate the risk of decolonisation leading to boundary wars. Nile Basins GERD dispute creates risks for Egypt, Sudan, and beyond. Thus, as with the Watercourses Convention and the CFA, the DoP does not offer a clear legal resolution to the dispute. According to Article 16, former colonies do not inherit the treaty obligations of their former colonial rulers and instead receive a clean slate. However, Egypt could argue that the territorial treaty exception, under Articles 11 and 12, applies whereby colonial treaty provisions concerning boundaries must survive the impact of succession and bind successor states. The Chinese donors who have agreed to fund it have performed no independent social or environmental impact reviews. First came the 1999 Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA). The New Arab (2020b). Some have mythified it and claim it is the Gihon River of the Biblical Book of Genesis that encircles the entire land of Cush, thereby adding a religious dimension to the politicisation. In short, the Nile Waters Treaties do little to constrain Ethiopias ability to construct the Dam. Moreover, it arguably prohibits any reduction of flow to Egypt by limiting Ethiopias use of the Dam to electricity generation alone. Such a mitigation program can make it much easier for Egyptian and Sudanese authorities to cooperate with Ethiopia and the other riparians in creating and adopting an agreement for management of the Nile. The Blue Nile is Ethiopias largest river, with high potential for hydropower and irrigation. Further, it means that this figure should be used to assess the impact of the Dam on the Egyptian economy for the purposes of calculating compensation resulting from loss of flow. In its 2013 report, the International Rivers Organisation predicted that the long-term effects of the Gibe III Dam would turn Lake Turkana into another Aral Sea. Concern has focused in particular on Lake Turkana, which derives 90 per cent of its water from the Omo River on which the Gilgel Gibe III Dam was built. March 14, 2020, 6:57 AM. Egypt had asked the UNSC to push the three countries to adhere to their obligations in accordance with the rules of international law in order to reach a fair and balanced solution to the issue of the GERD. Egypts repeated references to the rules of international law is part of an effort to maintain its so-called natural and historical rights that were established and reaffirmed by the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty and 1959 Agreement between Egypt and Sudan, respectivelytreaties many of the other involved parties reject as anachronistic and untenable. Here, for the first time, Egypt recognised Ethiopias right to use the Nile for development purposes. In order to sustain this benefit in the long run, Ethiopias neighbouring countries will have to continue to purchase hydroelectric energy, and rainfall will have to fall at the same rate on the Ethiopian Plateau. Even then, the initial studies did not extend beyond the borders with Kenya. Egypt's 100 million people rely on the Nile for 90% of the country's water needs. The New Arab (2020a). The GERD has the potential to act both as driver for conflict, but also for cooperation. Ultimately, however, Egypt did not sign the CFA (nor did Sudan) hence it does not resolve the dispute. It simultaneously expects that this role will change Ethiopias international status from a country perceived as poor and dependent on foreign aid to a regional power able to provide vital resources to its surrounding region. At that point, the lake that . In terms of putative new law, namely the Watercourses Convention and the DoP, the key principles of equitable utilisation and no significant harm seem to leave ample room to accommodate the construction of a dam for hydroelectric generation purposes. A general view of the Blue Nile river as it passes through the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), near Guba in Ethiopia, on December 26, 2019. Chinese banks provided financing for the purchase of the turbines and electrical equipment for the hydroelectric plants. The three countries have agreed that when the flow of Nile water to the dam falls below 35-40 b.c.m. Match. It will also give Ethiopia more control . Already, on June 19, 2020, Egyptian authorities called upon the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to intervene after tripartite talks had failed to secure an agreement on the filling schedule for the GERD. These are two of the largest dams in Africa. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) takes an expansionist view towards decolonisation as seen in the Chagos Islands Advisory Opinion, in which it allowed the decolonisation agenda to trump the UKs lack of consent to any contentious proceedings. We do know that Ethiopia is already seeing longer droughts and worse floods. The Washington Quarterly, 37(2), 25-37. Since its inception, there have been two, highly contentious, products. Search for jobs related to Disadvantages of the grand ethiopian renaissance dam or hire on the world's largest freelancing marketplace with 22m+ jobs. However, the Convention took almost twenty years to enter into force (from 1997 to 2014) due to the lack of necessary ratifications by states. A Tripartite National Committee (TNC), consisting of national experts from Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, was constituted in order to determine principles of cooperation. Subsequent impact studies were performed by the European Investment Bank and the African Development Bank, and in the light of the results, these banks cancelled their funding for Gibe III. In July of 2021, the second filling of the dam was completed. for seepage and evaporation, but afforded no water to Ethiopia or other upstream riparian statesthe sources of most of the water that flows into the Nile. It signifies that Egypts de facto veto power on major upstream dams has been broken, and it clearly demonstrates the political will of Ethiopia to develop its water infrastructure even in the absence of a comprehensive basin agreement. When it is completed, with its concrete volume of 10.2 million m3, GERD will feature the largest dam in Africa. Construction of the 6,000-megawatt, US $5 billion Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) began . An argument could be made that some of its provisions have passed into customary international law, however, that would require clear general practice and opinio juris. The Nile waters have historically been governed by the Nile Waters Treaties. These colonial-era agreements comprise (i) the 1902 Anglo-Ethiopian Treaty (with the UK representing modern-day Sudan); (ii) the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty (with the UK representing modern-day Kenya and Uganda) and (iii) the 1959 Egypt-Sudan Treaty (with the UK now absent as a result of decolonisation). On the surface, the 558 ft tall dam Africa's biggest hydropower project belies Ethiopia's financial muscle. Ethiopia has never 'consumed' significant shares of the Niles water so far, as its previous political and economic fragility in combination with a lack of external financial support, due to persistent Egyptian opposition to projects upstream, prevented it from implementing large-scale projects. The researchers looked at the dynamic interactions between the Nile's hydrology and infrastructure and Egypt's economy. In my opinion, this should be negotiable, to fill the lake over a longer period, and only when the river is sufficiently full. The significance of Gulf involvement was highlighted by the . Given the fact that the conflict between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan over the GERD seems to be among the most pressing issues in the region, it might be advisable for emphasis to be placed on securing a trilateral agreement that secures the peace between these three countries first. In fact, about 85 % of the overall Nile flow originates on Ethiopian territory (Swain, 2011). These hydraulic mega-projects underscore the ambitious local and regional political aims of the Ethiopian ruling elites. However, as noted above, the trouble with relying on the DoP is that its legal status is not clearly defined. Amazingly, the normally required social and environmental impact studies were only conducted three years after construction of the dam had began. The dispute has prompted numerous international interventions, including by Gulf Arab states, which have issued political statements and led mediation efforts. Cairo . The so-called Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (Gerd) is Africa's biggest hydroelectric project to date. The Danger of Multi-Party Democracy and Free Elections in Plural Societies Recognizing the Muslim Brotherhood as a Legitimate Player in Egyptian Politics was a Big Mistake Ethiopian Partnering with ASKY to Establish West African Cargo Hub Ethiopia and China's ZTE singed $800 million mobile deal H and M to build factories in Ethiopia Sima Aldardari. Rendering of GERDEthiopia is building one of the largest dams in the world, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), on the River Nile near the Sudan border. l Coordinates 111255N 3505 . Link, P.M. et al. Neither the Egyptian nor the Ethiopian governments received positive domestic feedback on their agreement. Perhaps the most obvious argument that Ethiopia may want to make is a rebuttal to Egypts continued reliance on the Nile Water Treaties. Disadvantages Slow process Could be washed to the wrong direction Start up costs Lesson 4: Long term investment, It can't cope with he propagation rate of water hyacinth. The treaties also purported to give Egypt veto power over upstream projects. While such dams also come with long-term benefits to local populations, the chief beneficiary will always be the state, which reaps profits from the sale of surplus electricity. Search for jobs related to Disadvantages of the grand ethiopian renaissance dam or hire on the world's largest freelancing marketplace with 20m+ jobs. The situation seemed to improve in the beginning of 2015 when tripartite negotiations were held in order to determine principles of cooperation. Zegabi East Africa News (2015). Monday January 2, 2017. Ethiopias strategy for dam construction goes far beyond developmental goals. The Tendaho, Tekeze, and the Gibe series are only a few examples from that period. Note that, under Article 62(2) VCLT, territorial treaties are excepted from the change in circumstances rule. GIGA Focus No. Government of the United States of America. Egypt, which lies 1,600 miles downstream of the Dam, believes its operation will reduce the amount of fresh water available to it from the Nile. grand ethiopian renaissance dam. Match. Indeed, the ICJ confirmed in Gabikovo-Nagymaros Project that all riparian states have a basic right to an equitable and reasonable sharing of the resources of the watercourse. Moreover, these principles were pulled through into the DoP agreed by both Egypt and Ethiopia. Ethiopia's determination to build a major new dam, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), for hydropower purposes has been the flashpoint of current conflicts in the Eastern Nile Basin (Gebreluel, 2014). Cham, Switzerland: Springer International Publishing AG, 79-110. Practically from the outset, the World Bank and international donors withdrew funding due to a lack of transparency, driven home when it was learned that the construction had begun without a permit from the Environmental Protection Agency in Ethiopia. After all, the VCLT allows states to withdraw from or terminate a treaty owing to a fundamental change of circumstances which has occurred and which was not foreseen by the parties (Article 62(1)). In 2019, the UNESCO World Heritage Committee warned that the Gibe III Dam had already disrupted the seasonal patterns of Lake Turkana and that this would reduce fish life and harm local communities dependent on the Lake. The GERD has become a new reality challenging the traditional dynamics in the Nile River Basin. In contrast, other watercourse states on the Nile have lent their support to the Dam. His research indicates that rapid filling of the reservoir could lead to severe economic losses, though he notes that expanding groundwater extraction, adjusting the operation of Egypt's Aswan High Dam, and cultivating crops that require less water could help offset some of the impact. With regard to the mega-dams, the Gilgel Gibe III Dam and the GERD speak volumes on the substance of Zenawis political ideology. Location l Formerly called as project x then known as the Millennium Dam then it renamed to Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Egypt has also escalated its call to the international community to get involved. The Ethiopian government has always availed itself of its power to transfer local populations off land it decides to declare a public resource. It could be a treaty or merely a political declaration as the name implies. The withdrawal from the project by Deltares has been met by a wave of objections in Egypt for fear . International rights organisations have reported that many cases of displacement were not voluntary and that entire communities were driven from their villages. to hydrate farmland), it would effectively be taken from downstream states like Egypt. The Chinese then took over the funding amidst heightened international concern regarding the social, technical, and environmental repercussions of the Ethiopian dams. Still, Egypt may be playing with fire if it were to press the legal significance of the DoP. L'Europe en Formation, 365(3), 99-138. (2017). The Watercourses Convention aims to regulate the uses, as well as the conservation, of all transboundary waters above and below the surface. The toll on the local communities affected by the dams has been enormous. A political requirement will be to agree on rules for filling the GERD reservoir and on operating rules for the GERD, especially during periods of drought. Churning waters: Strategic shifts in the Nile basin. After announcing the dam's construction, and with a view to the increasing tensions, the Ethiopian government invited both Egypt and Sudan to form an International Panel of Experts (IPoE) to solicit understanding of the benefits, costs and impacts of the GERD. The above-mentioned Gilgel Gibe III Dam stood out as the worlds most controversial dam until the GERD. There are three key articles. Article 7 provides that watercourse states must take all appropriate measures to prevent significant harm to other watercourse States and that, where harm does occur, there shall be consultations to discuss the question of compensation. Finally, Article 8 requires that watercourse states cooperate on the basis of sovereign equality, territorial integrity, mutual benefit and good faith.. The first filling of the dam in July 2020 went uneventfully. IDS (2013). What Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia must overcome to all benefit from the Grand Renaissance Dam. Basically, Ethiopia should cooperate with the other riparian states in developing and adopting an effective drought mitigation protocol, one that includes the possibility that GERD managers may have to release water from the reservoir, when necessary, to mitigate droughts. In 1964, the US Land Reclamation Bureau conducted a study for the Ethiopian government, identifying 33 hydraulic projects in the Blue Nile Basin. Both Egypt and Ethiopia could make arguments in support of their positions. Security implications of growing water scarcity in Egypt. As early as 1957, Ethiopian officials said that the Somalian economy could not survive on its own given how heavily dependent it was on Ethiopia. From this round of talks, it appears that negotiations are able to move forward and address other sticking points on the agenda, such as conflict resolution mechanisms and the dams operations in the event of multi-year droughts (Al Jazeera, 2020). Afraid that a drought might appear during the filling period, Egypt wants the filling to take place over a much longer period. According to Baradei, hydropower dams create immense turbulence in the water, where chemical reactions such as dissolved oxygen can destroy fauna and flora. By Ambassador Gurjit Singh*. The Dam is being built by Ethiopia on the Nile River and is fiercely opposed by Egypt. Already, the United States has threatened to withhold development aid to Ethiopia if the conflict is not resolved and an agreement reached. Nevertheless, Egypt must not use sympathy for its water vulnerability as a weapon to frustrate the efforts of the other riparians to secure an agreement that is balanced, fair, and equitable. Although the case has been dropped, the organisations work focused international attention on the dams potential detrimental impacts on the lakes habitat. 2. Article 5 requires that watercourse states utilise an international watercourse in an equitable and reasonable manner and creates the duty to cooperate in the protection and development of the watercourse. casting the DoP as a treaty) has the potential to abrogate the Nile Waters Treaties that Egypt holds so dear. In the imperialist age, Ethiopian emperors threatened to alter the course of the Nile and stop its flow to Egypt. 2011. how much does the reservoir contain? Recently, however, Sudan has been more cautious with the project, citing concerns that the GERDs operation and safety could jeopardise its own dams (The New Arab, 2020b). The Political Deadlock on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Given these considerations, it seems that Ethiopia has all but won the dispute. Four of these would potentially be located on the main river and one would eventually evolve into the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Indeed, Egypt has called the filling of the dam an. This is because it is traditionally understood to refer to waterways that form intrinsic parts of international boundaries. Therefore, all the water is eventually released downstream with the effect that there is no net loss of water to downstream states. The disadvantages for Egypt and Sudan are the possibility of reduced river flow, although this is only really a problem during the years of filling the dam. Ethiopia, however, prefers to have the flexibility to make decisions on how to deal with droughts. The Eastern Nile Basin comprises Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia. The Nile riparians must understand that the river is a common resource whose effective management must be approached from a basin-wide perspective. "The Blue Nile is the lifeblood of Egypt and its people and critics fear the dam could significantly reduce water flow to the country." "Climate change is such a big unknown. Although Egypt and Sudan are likely to resist efforts to include the other upstream riparians in the negotiations or to allow a regional organization, such as the NBI, to serve as an implementing organ, they must understand that the Nile River is a regional watercourse and its management must be approached from a regional perspective. It seeks to build an infrastructure for regional water hegemony, positioning it, at the very least, in such a way that it can exchange water for oil. To African commentators in recent decades, massive investments in mega-energy and irrigation projects were emblematic of the African economic emergence, and Ethiopia at that time vaunted itself as one of the fastest-growing economies in the region. The countrys 2003 development plan introduced many more, and the Ethiopian government launched an ambitious PR campaign to encourage donor nations and international funding agencies to support these projects financially and ideologically as the highway to Ethiopian development and prosperity. Flashcards. In March 2015, a 'Declaration of Principles' was signed by the leaders of Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, setting the foundations for an initial cooperation. Omar, A. Because the strategy of land allocation and dam construction relied on senior executive decisions and foreign funding from China, above all, the government was largely freed of pressures of transparency and accountability. Ethiopia has the basins most suitable locations for hydropower production, and its damming of the Blue Nile would significantly increase Sudan's potential for irrigated agriculture. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, a 1.1-mile-long concrete colossus, is set to become the largest hydropower plant in Africa. This is because the VCLT allows an older treaty to be rescinded by a new one if the new one concerns the same topic (Article 59). Ethiopia says it will take a further four to six years to fill up the reservoir to its maximum flood season capacity of 74bcm. Although conflict over the allocation of the waters of the Nile River has existed for many years, the dispute, especially that between Egypt and Ethiopia, significantly escalated when the latter commenced construction of the dam on the Blue Nile in 2011. The largest permanent desert lake in the world, Turkana has three national parks that are now listed as UNESCO World Heritage Sites. If the relevant parties can agree to these goals, the agreement, in the end, will need to include technical language that ensures equitable sharing of the Nile. Addis Ababa has said the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a $4bn hydropower project, is crucial to its economic development and to provide power. The politicisation of the Niles water and the utilisation of development projects to achieve political ends are not new phenomena. Learn. In June 2020, tensions escalated when Ethiopia declared its intent to fill the dam in July without an agreement, which again led to Egypt and Sudan requesting UNSC intervention on the matter (Kandeel, 2020).