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In 2008, Obama received69,498,516 votes, per the Federal Election Commission. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. "I said: 'I'm the chair of the Democratic Party,' and the gentleman looked at me and said: 'Oh, the enemy.'". He would have to really drive up big margins in the less populous counties in the mountainous Western part of the state, as well as Chesterfield (south of Richmond) and Virginia Beach. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. The second-most populous county in the state, northern Nevadas Washoe County is home to Reno. Once-reliably Republican -- and essential to Republicans to help overcome the deficit they face in Las Vegas Clark County -- Washoe voted twice for Bush and then twice for Obama. It's another one of those white, college-educated areas that could prove key to this election. ET. According to PolitiFact, voter turnout was66.2% in 2020 and 61.6% in 2008. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? Cincinnati is kind of considered a little bit of an island off the rest of Ohio. In fact, according to David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, compared to 1,096 counties that fit that description in 1992. More Than Half of U.S. Population in 4.6 Percent of Counties, Fact check: Clarifying the comparison between popular vote and counties won in the 2020 election, Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election, Americas bellwethers crumbled in aligning with Trump in 20. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. Trump gave them hope. The Bellwether County to Watch in Pennsylvania . While Trump won every county in the state in the GOP primary, he posted his best result in Luzerne 77 percent. From 1980 through 2016, 19 of the nation's more than 3,000 counties voted for the eventual president in every election. 8. He will need to cut into Clintons advantage here in North Carolinas second-most populous county since Clinton is likely to roll up the score in Democratic Mecklenburg County (Charlotte). Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton need to shore up their bases here in a place where there are more unaffiliated voters than Republicans or Democrats and major party registration is at near parity. In each of the past three presidential elections, Arizona has had four consistently Democratic counties (Apache, Coconino, Pima, Santa Cruz) and 11 Republican ones (Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, Yavapai and Yuma). They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. 10. Ultimately, they are simply 19 counties and this time, 18 of them voted for the candidate who lost the election. You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. Or want to contribute to our open-source collection of articles and statistics? Latest voter registration totals: 937,155 No party registration. BELLWETHER, a documentary web-series, will cover the 2016 presidential election through the eyes and experiences of voters in Terre Haute and Vigo County, the most consistently accurate "bellwether" in the nation. 2016 Election (1135) Furthermore, consider the fact that bellwethers dont just have a random 50% chance at winning we should expect them to have a better than 50% chance of getting it right. ), You can find the answers to the above questions yourself by searching this site: politico.com/2020-election/results Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. In 2012, it had nearly half a million more voters in it than every other county in the state combined. Whether or not these less diverse, industry-dependent communities can regain their bellwether status in four years' time remains to be seen. Potential canaries in the coal mine, aside from Montgomery, include Wood, south of Toledo, and Stark, home to Canton and the pro-football Hall of Fame in northeastern Ohio. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. It abuts Clevelands Cuyahoga County to the east and went narrowly to Mitt Romney in 2012. GOP Chairman Dale Fellows noted that the population has been steadily aging in recent years. Here is a look at the bellwether counties for the 2020 presidential race. Ryan Matsumoto is a contributing analyst for Inside Elections. Racine County, which features a significant Hispanic and African American population, is the only competitive county bordering Milwaukee Ozaukee, Waukesha and Washington counties are reliably Republican. Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. From his tweet: From 1984 through 2016, spanning presidential elections, seventeen US counties in several states ad voted for the winning presidential candidate in an astounding 148 of 153 times including 100% five times for five different presidents: Advertisement - story continues below 1984 Reagan 1996 Clinton 2000 Bush 2012 Obama 2016 Trump From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Trump2012: Obama 50%, Romney 49%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 192,278Republicans: 182,364Unaffiliated: 40,047Other: 29,484. Florida (29 electoral votes) - Toss-up. The exurban county has seen a surge in minority voters in fact, non-Hispanic whites only constitute 62 percent of the vote, and thats made the area more competitive. ", "Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election", "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_election_bellwether_counties_in_the_United_States&oldid=1125445752, This page was last edited on 4 December 2022, at 01:36. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. A swing county is a county that voted correctly for the winning party at one election and then voted for the other winning party at the next election. A Trump win is probably out of the question in a county thats home to Des Moines and the state capitol -- he finished third here in the caucuses behind first-place finisher Rubio and runner-up Cruz -- but he will go a long way toward carrying the state if he can keep it close. Other counties to watch: Palm Beach and Miami-Dade are both places where Clinton has to drive up the score. There are 391 such counties. President-elect Joe Biden officially secured the presidency after the Electoral College met to give him and Vice President-elect Harris 306 votes. With each new section we relaxed the constraint, to include the most friendly Democrat voting counties in the country (based on the 2008 election). Read about our approach to external linking. The Americans who almost always predict the president With a total turnout. Clinton has to hit that margin in this county where more than half a million people voted. Just a tiny fraction of them truly matter. This was important for candidates since the presidential candidate's campaign would normally foot the bill. So, for our purposes, a swing county would have voted as follows: There are 80 such counties. If Trump can't win back or cut into margins in places like Prince William, Fairfax and Loudon, he likely can't win the state. However, its bellwether status is by no means guaranteed in future elections. But along with the states other urbanized counties, Forsyth has moved to the left, twice backing Barack Obama. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. (Go to the bottom of the page. For Trump to win, he has to carry this populous Detroit suburb. 6. These are places that are demographically strong for Republicans in the abstract, but might have had something that kept them closer to 50-50.". If Clinton is going to win Utah, she will need to squeeze out as many Democrats as is possible in Salt Lake, and maybe win young people in those college towns, including Logan in Cache County (Utah State). The popular vote is not enough to win apresidential election; thatonly occurs with awin in the Electoral College. Find a coin, and flip it, and see how long it takes to (just) get 10 heads or 10 tails in a row. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in . Pittsburghs Allegheny County, the second-most populous county in the state after Philadelphia, is heavily Democratic. It is whiter than the rest of the state but has a slightly higher level of college degrees, although still it's just 28 percent. None of them impacts the legitimacy of the presidential election. . There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. We organized this by poll-closing time (all in Eastern time for the latest poll-closing times in that state), so you can follow along as the night goes: 1. Keep in mind that if we started the attrition from the 1980 election, there would still be 19 counties standing after the 2016 election. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. The table shows the number of counties that voted for the winning candidate since the 1988 election. As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. George W. Bush twice won comfortably in Forsyth County, the home of Winston-Salem. Shield icon by Freepik from flaticon.com. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud or other supposed issues with the election. "They followed through the whole four years. used to vote more like the country as a whole, huge gains with white voters without a college degree, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. Out of 3,141 counties, there were 22 counties that had successfully voted for the winning candidate in each and every election between 1988 and 2016 (included). Not anymore. Republicans also have to do drive up their own turnout in big population areas like Charlotte, but also have to drive up margins in lots of medium-size population counties like Union (Charlotte suburb). In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Hillary Clinton (578) They are not a statistical curiosity, but the perfect distillation or embodiment of the whole countrys sentiment. In 2020,Biden received81,281,888 votes andTrump received74,223,251 votes, according to a tally byUSA TODAY. Go on, look them up! Trump won 18 of the 19. But when word got out, Trump supporters crashed it. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points . In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. White voters without a college degree used to vote more like the country as a whole, which helps explain why these counties maintained their bellwether status for a long time. These former bellwether counties are much whiter and less college-educated than the country as a whole. The same can be said for the three states listed in the meme. "There are more and more places in this country that are consistently red or blue, so there are fewer and fewer counties that swing back and forth from election to election," he said. This year with Mr Trump winning the county handily, not only did Vigo County Republicans keep their seats, a "red tide" similar to what transpired in Ottawa and Valencia counties saw Republican members take positions such as county judge, treasurer, clerk and recorder. ), voted Democrat again in 2020? 1 County 61947 People 2012 Predicting since One county. Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 116,093Republicans 89,644Unaffiliated: 86,703. More than one-in-four votes cast for Obama and Romney in 2012 came from Hillsborough. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 105,724Republicans: 70,060Unaffiliated: 15,141Other: 6,079. Combinedwith general population growth, and this election had 27 million more participants. Other counties to watch: Perhaps no state more starkly displays the broader rural-urban divide in this country than Virginia. Other swing counties to watch: Monroe and Calhoun. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. Dave Wasserman, who analyzes election data for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Wall Street Journal that ticket-splitting appeared to make "a fashion comeback in many places.". These counties turned out to vote strongly for the Democrat party in 2008, so they are the most likely to swing back to the Democrat party in 2020. Trump won the other 18 counties. Watch the margins in Story (Ames) and Scott (Davenport). In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. Or, if you dont have enough time, how many of the top 10 switch counties, which overwhelmingly voted Democrat in 2008 (with a percentage Democrat vote over 58% ! Copyright 2023 HotAir.com/Salem Media. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate. It's true that the report first showed Biden at 477 counties andTrump at 2,497 counties, though ithas since been updated to showBiden at 509 andTrump at 2,547. Contributors wanted The percentage of people with college degrees here is two-thirds higher than the rest of the state. Bellwether counties are important, and their significance should not be downplayed. The 2020 election appears to illustrate that the partisanship that's defined politics in Washington for years has now spread to small-town America. This county, home to Reno, borders California and is at the opposite end of the state from Las Vegas. Well, lets consider the percentage gap between the winning and losing party in these counties. Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). The Biden campaign has run ads in the Toledo broadcast market, which conveniently covers part of Michigan, too. Find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. It's New Hampshire's biggest county by population. While Clinton has family ties to the coal-producing region her father was born in neighboring Scranton mid-July polling from a GOP pollster suggests Trump is winning big here. there are signs that the progress he made there in 2016 winning the county by about 1.5 percentage points after Obama carried it by 16 points . So we took 15 of the states where this election has been hotly waged and identified one county in each that has gone with the winner or closely reflected the statewide margin in each. If you'd like to assist or contribute in some way, learn how. 7. "It wasn't part of his strategy.". Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 105,097Republicans: 87,763Democrats: 77,383. Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. Since 1960, Democrats have won Rockingham County only three times. Oct. 28, 2021, 11:05 AM PDT. A few counties in America are known as the "bellwether counties": Those locations that always end up voting for the candidate who ultimately wins in the presidential election. It is also not as educated: Just 22 percent of adults 25 or older have a bachelors degree or higher, which is substantially lower than the 32 percent who have a college degree nationwide. This sizable Cincinnati suburb has reflected the statewide margin in the last two presidential elections. "Especially considering there's a lot of things that has been done that don't get reported at all.". Ottawa County wasn't the only swing county to get the outcome wrong this time around. Please keep this in mind as you continue to read through our bellwether analysis. Warren and Henry Counties appear to be the least swingy of those counties from 2008 to 2012. Other counties to watch: Clinton has to drive up the margins in counties along the shores of Lake Erie, from Lucas (Toledo) to most notably Cuyahoga (Cleveland). One of the big four suburban collar counties ringing Philadelphia and the fourth-most populous county in the state Bucks is always competitive. Still, the state's worth watching. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. They simply vote on merit. Explore the pages of this site and the links to further reports. She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. But it's still indicative of widespread support. These counties were geographically clustered in the Midwest and in the Northeast. It went with the exact margin for Romney in 2012 statewide and McCain statewide in 2008. Both Clinton and Trump need to turn out their bases in Fulton (Atlanta). This fact check is available at IFCNs 2020 US Elections FactChat #Chatbot on WhatsApp. The fact that there were 19 demonstrates the incredible predictive abilities of these counties.). Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. 11. But county wins don't correlate with the popular vote, in part due to tremendousvariancein population size and density by county. That report was issued on Nov. 12. It very closely mirrors the rest of the state demographically (with a slightly higher Asian population), but it is far more educated. For instance, Washington County, Maine the median bellwether county in terms of its share thats non-Hispanic white is 89 percent non-Hispanic white, which is much higher than the overall U.S. population that identifies as such (60 percent). Has No Presidential Candidate Won Iowa, Florida and Ohio and Still Lost? Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. Recently, though, social media users have shared a meme with statistics that they claim discredits his victory. The most populous county in the state and home to Manchester and Nashua, Hillsborough twice voted narrowly for Bush and twice for Obama. Unfortunately, Github (now a Microsoft company) terminated this website's account on 13 Jan 2021 for "spreading misinformation", a violation of their terms, although no specific examples were given. "That didn't happen after 2016," she adds. From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). 2020 Election (1210) We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? (From a purely random statistics perspective, there should only be 1 or 2 standing. 3. After you have spent an hour trying, record the maximum streak length you achieved. ), Fact check: Biden won the most total votes and the fewest total counties of any president-elect. Outstanding. 9. David Niven, a political scientist at the University of Cincinnati, also told the Associated Press that it "speaks to an evolution in American politics" rather than fraud. The Trump era made us rethink a lot about politics and elections in America, including the counties that are useful barometers of the national political environment. Other counties to watch: Denver suburbs Adams, Arapahoe, Jefferson. The idea being these counties are good at sensing a change of sentiment and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them. The statistic on counties comes from a report bytheBrookings Institution on Nov. 10. This one of 99 counties made up 16 percent of Obama's total vote in 2012. "The 2020 election was RIGGED.". (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. If Trump wants to win the state, he has to start with a win here and make up the rest of the margin elsewhere. This website summarizes the major findings in the 1218 months following the Nov 2020 election. As such, the margins in bellwether counties became substantially more Republican even as the country only became a little more Republican, as you can see in the chart below. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. Help raise awareness within your community about the lingering, unresolved issues with election integrity. "Those are things that aren't just political, they become personal, after the election.". While Bill Clinton was in town recently to open up a Democratic campaign office, party leaders are skeptical they can win here with Hillary Clinton on the ticket. (The highest value being again 66.1%). In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. Clinton needs to be closer to Obama's 57 percent in 2008 than his 55 percent in 2012. In other words, it's not whether Clinton wins Hillsborough that's important, but by how much. The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night. What's more, in this year's election voters in leading bellwether counties didn't just come out for Donald Trump marginally; they backed him in droves. Below are 10 bellwether counties that could give signs as to how the electorate feels this cycle and in future races. Arapahoe County. Thank you for supporting our journalism. Click on the relevant state then look for the county name.). Here are the concepts we have established so far: This is just the beginning. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: List of election bellwether counties in the United States. In 132 years, no president has received more votes in his run for reelection and lost. Their emotions and decision making process are real. HereIsTheEvidence.com and ElectionEvidence.com have compiled detailed databases of hundreds of items of election fraud evidence, by state. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 55%-43%. In 2008, Obama carried this county outside Detroit by 9 percentage points but that winning margin was cut in half in 2012 with Michigan native Mitt Romney leading the GOP ticket. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. Her running mate Tim Kaine the former Richmond mayor and Virginia governor could make a difference here, Latest voter registration totals: 230,236No party registration, Loudoun County flipped from red to blue in 2008, when Barack Obama won it and held it in 2012. Hillsborough made up more than half that margin Obama won the county by 36,000 votes. "These counties, they're not real representations of America," says Mr Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics. Their ability and sensitivity to dramatically switch parties in 2000, 2008 and 2016, is outstanding. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. Experts say that while traditional bellwether counties are whiter and less educated than the national average, there's no one element that unites them as political oracles. Instead, you can Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel which has more recent updates. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Or even better, if you have children, get them to do it for you. All other 21 counties voted Republican. For the first time "in years," says Mr Brikmanis, the Democratic National Party chose not to set up a local headquarters ahead of the November election. We welcome any suggestions and content contibutions with credible references that help others understand the key election integrity issues. The more people can work out and see for themselves that the data clearly indicates a different outcome, the better. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 54%-45% - 2008: Obama 57%-41%. Their hopes are real. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. From 1980 through 2016, there were19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. Obama won it with 53 percent of the vote while winning statewide by just 75,000 votes in 2012. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 57%-41% - 2008: McCain 55%-44%. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. "When I came here in 1989, you couldn't be elected dog catcher if you weren't a Democrat," he says. The question is, how much did they get it wrong by? It's true that both Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2020 won in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. It provided the second highest vote totals of any county and a significant share for Democrats. It went for Romney 54 to 44 percent, nearly reflecting the overall margin. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. We sorted the counties from highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (in the 2008 election). 108,000 people. Demographics (84) This website merely reports on substantial allegations made by well-known public figures, elected officials, members of congress, and their legal teams, and will correct errors when notified. Other counties to watch: Wake, in the heart of the Research Triangle, used to be considered a swing county. With demographic change in the Research Triangle area, though, it's possible for Clinton to win without this smaller county. Almost a quarter of Obama's votes in 2012 came out of Wayne County (Detroit), which is 41 percent black. The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. [How Much Did COVID-19 Affect The 2020 Election?]. Racine County2016 primary winners: Sanders, Cruz, Latest voter registration totals: 113,599No party registration. Michigan (16 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. University of Denver, 2. It is easy to gloss over this. Biden-voting counties equal 70% of America's economy. Stephen Starr is an Irish journalist and author who reported from the Middle East for a decade before moving to Ohio in 2018. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention) . President-elect Biden on Electoral College vote: Clear victory. Click here, for more. It is the only county to go twice for Bush and twice for Obama. "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics. What's the least amount of exercise we can get away with? Mike Pence, could marshal his supporters to cross the border and provide support. How many of these counties voted less for the Republican party in 2020? Split-Ticket Voters Helped Biden, Republicans in Nebraska, Maine, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. Just one Clallam County, Washington voted for President Joe Biden. With a total turnout of 78%, Donald Trump won Ottawa County by a margin of 61% to 38%, improving his 2016 return by four points.